INSIGHTS

Chart Pack: September

We share our insights on global macro views and review asset class returns in our Monthly Chart Pack.

Stay ahead of the curve with our Mellon insights as well as BNY Mellon Investment Management’s Market Insights and MarketEye blog.

Topic
Format

Showing 91 results

The Fed’s Path Forward Global Macro Views
September 2024

The Fed’s Path Forward

We break down the Fed’s path toward policy adjustments.

Global Macro Views | Blog
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Cool, Sahm and Collected Global Macro Views
September 2024

Cool, Sahm and Collected

The fear of recession begins to spread as unemployment rises in the US jobs report.

Global Macro Views | Blog
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We Told You So… Global Macro Views
July 2024

We Told You So…

We believe markets should avoid pricing for a rate cut in September. Here’s why.

Global Macro Views | Blog
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Fed Thoughts: Will the Fed Swipe Left or Right? Fed Thoughts
July 2024

Fed Thoughts: Will the Fed Swipe Left or Right?

We determine if the position of price stability will sway the Fed to restrict or ease policy.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Hidden Complexity: Challenges of Managing to the Agg Precision in Practice
July 2024

Hidden Complexity: Challenges of Managing to the Agg

The Agg fulfills a crucial role for investors, but replicating the benchmark is complicated. Discover our solution.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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The Natural or Neutral Rate of Interest, or R* in Brief Fed Thoughts
June 2024

The Natural or Neutral Rate of Interest, or R* in Brief

We examine the natural or neutral rate of interest, also known as r*.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Playing with Blocks Fed Thoughts
May 2024

Fed Thoughts: Playing with Blocks

We weigh the key risks that may impact the Federal Reserve’s judgment in the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Proxy Voting Report Spring 2024 Precision with Purpose
April 2024

Proxy Voting Report Spring 2024

Read about the variety of topics Mellon voted on from July to December 2023.

Precision with Purpose | White Paper
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Commercial Real Estate Debt Wall Global Macro Views
April 2024

Commercial Real Estate Debt Wall

The commercial real estate debt wall may impact regional bank lenders’ profits in 2024.

Global Macro Views | Blog
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Inflation Pressures Rise in Japan Global Macro Views
March 2024

Inflation Pressures Rise in Japan

The Bank of Japan has lifted its policy rate out of negative territory this Spring.

Global Macro Views | Blog
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Fed Thoughts: The Body Politic Fed Thoughts
February 2024

Fed Thoughts: The Body Politic

How will the political landscape impact the timing on Federal Reserve’s policy shifts?

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Reviewing Magnificent Seven Stocks Market Observations
February 2024

Reviewing Magnificent Seven Stocks

A group of seven top tech stocks outperformed the broader S&P 500® in 2023.

Market Observations | Article
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Fed Thoughts: Boats Against the Current Fed Thoughts
January 2024

Fed Thoughts: Boats Against the Current

The potential challenges the Fed faces in the fight against inflation.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Marching towards a rate cut? Global Macro Views
January 2024

Marching towards a rate cut?

Global Economist Nick Tocchio speculates a potential rate cut following the December FOMC meeting.

Global Macro Views | Blog
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2024 Global Economic Outlook Global Macro Views
January 2024

2024 Global Economic Outlook

Our experts analyze the global economic landscape of 2024.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Where to? The S&P 500® Market Observations
December 2023

Where to? The S&P 500®

Uber Technologies has made its arrival into the S&P 500®.

Market Observations | Article
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Fed Thoughts: The Gravitational Pull on Monetary Policy Fed Thoughts
December 2023

Fed Thoughts: The Gravitational Pull on Monetary Policy

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart explains the importance of how the Federal Reserve communicates its policy intentions.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Back to the Future Fed Thoughts
October 2023

Fed Thoughts: Back to the Future

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart offers details on the Federal Reserve’s goal to keep the policy rate “higher for longer.”

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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We Get Questions Global Macro Views
October 2023

We Get Questions

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart and Global Economist Nicholas Tocchio answer client questions about current economic issues.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Proxy Voting Report Fall 2023 Precision with Purpose
October 2023

Proxy Voting Report Fall 2023

Read about the variety of topics Mellon voted on during the 2023 proxy season.

Precision with Purpose | White Paper
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The Nasdaq-100® Index Special Rebalance Market Observations
July 2023

The Nasdaq-100® Index Special Rebalance

We examine the details behind the rebalancing and what prompted it.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Last Mile Fed Thoughts
July 2023

Fed Thoughts: The Last Mile

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart describes how the Federal Reserve (Fed) is approaching the last mile of its rate-hiking campaign.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Modern Monetarism Market Observations
June 2023

Modern Monetarism

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart explains why the monetary base is a useful recession indicator—when measured correctly.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Beware the Ides of March Market Observations
April 2023

Beware the Ides of March

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart answers lingering questions from the market action during March.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Proxy Voting Report Spring 2023 Precision with Purpose
March 2023

Proxy Voting Report Spring 2023

Find out how we advocate for our clients’ best interests through engagement in the Spring 2023 Proxy Voting Report.

Precision with Purpose | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Long and Short of Policy Choice Fed Thoughts
March 2023

Fed Thoughts: The Long and Short of Policy Choice

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart predicts March Federal Reserve (Fed) action and outlines the potential short- and long-term consequences.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Debt Ceiling: The Other Nuclear Threat Market Observations
February 2023

The Debt Ceiling: The Other Nuclear Threat

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart breaks down the debt ceiling for investors.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Fed & the Fisc Fed Thoughts
December 2022

Fed Thoughts: The Fed & the Fisc

We share thoughts on the last FOMC meeting in 2022 and the challenges ahead in 2023.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Ready, Set, Smile Market Observations
November 2022

Ready, Set, Smile

Explore the forces driving US dollar strength and its impact on global benchmark performance.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Operating at a Loss Fed Thoughts
October 2022

Fed Thoughts: Operating at a Loss

We review the arithmetic of inflation ahead of the November 1-2 FOMC meeting.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Price of Tightening Market Observations
August 2022

The Price of Tightening

If the Fed is overly optimistic about the path to control inflation, current equity valuations may be rife for a correction.

Market Observations | Article
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Fed Thoughts: Suspension of Disbelief Fed Thoughts
August 2022

Fed Thoughts: Suspension of Disbelief

We review the July 26-27 FOMC meeting and the dangers of disinflation optimism.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Who is in Charge? Market Observations
July 2022

Who is in Charge?

Super-sized moves ahead? What the latest set of staggering data may mean for the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: That Was the Week That Was Fed Thoughts
July 2022

Fed Thoughts: That Was the Week That Was

What can we learn from the Wall Street Journal leak ahead of the June 13 FOMC meeting?

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Recession Risks Market Observations
June 2022

Recession Risks

The Federal Reserve’s response to lost price stability puts the US economy on a path to recession. We discuss the risks.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Wake Me When September Ends Fed Thoughts
June 2022

Fed Thoughts: Wake Me When September Ends

We explain why the Federal Open Market Committee might diverge from gradualism later this year.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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LUNA(cy) Market Observations
May 2022

LUNA(cy)

Investors should draw as many lessons as possible from the recent collapse of the stablecoin UST and its crypto token twin LUNA. We offer three.

Market Observations | Article
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Fed Thoughts: Niagara Falls Fed Thoughts
May 2022

Fed Thoughts: Niagara Falls

With the Fed late in its turn toward containing inflation, fifty-basis-point dominoes should begin to fall.

Fed Thoughts | Article
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Reverse Engineering a Recession Market Observations
April 2022

Reverse Engineering a Recession

Four popular predicators of recession may individually have predictive power for business-cycle turning.

Market Observations | White Paper
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The Risk of Recession Market Observations
April 2022

The Risk of Recession

We briefly outline our views on the risk of a recession in the US and Europe and how China-US relations are evolving.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Between a Rock and a Hard Place Market Observations
March 2022

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The Federal Reserve faces increasingly difficult choices amid large-scale inflation and shocks to both global aggregate supply and demand.

Market Observations | Article
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Fed Thoughts: War & Peace Fed Thoughts
March 2022

Fed Thoughts: War & Peace

As Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to redraw Europe, central bankers have a responsibility to act in both war and peace.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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We Are Where We Are Fed Thoughts
January 2022

We Are Where We Are

What does the Federal Open Market Committee and pandemic Pelotons have in common? Find out in the latest Fed Thoughts.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Forgotten Secrets of the Hidden Temple Market Observations
November 2021

The Forgotten Secrets of the Hidden Temple

Will President Biden follow the script set in autumn 1979 or risk rocking the market boat? We explore precedents and presidents in the highly anticipated Fed chair appointment.

Market Observations | Article
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Fed Thoughts: Swipe Right or Left on Chair Powell? Fed Thoughts
November 2021

Fed Thoughts: Swipe Right or Left on Chair Powell?

The current decision of note on monetary policy is not about action but personnel. Will President Biden choose to reappoint Fed Chair Jay Powell?

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Highway to the Danger Zone Fed Thoughts
September 2021

Fed Thoughts: Highway to the Danger Zone

Adjusting monetary policy can take the maneuvering of a professional pilot. How will the Fed manage the landing?

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Here We Go Again: The Debt Ceiling Market Observations
September 2021

Here We Go Again: The Debt Ceiling

What is the likelihood that the Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling? We review causes for worry and likely outcomes in the latest dramatic and costly standoff on Capitol Hill.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta Gambler Fed Thoughts
August 2021

Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta Gambler

The house dealer, Fed Chair Jay Powell, has been pressed to the wall as a succession of his colleagues up the ante on an early exit.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every Page Global Macro Views
August 2021

Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every Page

As the coronavirus boxes about the path of economic growth, the Global Macro Forum examines the worthiness of its opponents and the dangers of outcome-based investing.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central Bankers Fed Thoughts
July 2021

Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central Bankers

Three behavioral traits of central bankers are shared around the world.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a Bug Fed Thoughts
June 2021

Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a Bug

The Federal Reserve will likely continue outcome-based rather than outlook-driven policymaking in the face of mounting inflation pressures and dollar depreciation.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views: Turning the Tide Global Macro Views
May 2021

Global Macro Views: Turning the Tide

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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The Monetary Wheels Go Round & Round Market Observations
March 2021

The Monetary Wheels Go Round & Round

We highlight the recent interplay between savings rates, bank deposits, and the Fed’s balance sheet.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Zero Lower Bound Warps Time & Space Fed Thoughts
March 2021

Fed Thoughts: The Zero Lower Bound Warps Time & Space

The Federal Reserve will likely be hesitant to change their messaging in light of the recent back-up in yields.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon? Fed Thoughts
March 2021

Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon?

How does the latest Treasury sell-off compare to previous episodes?

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
January 2021

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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The New Kid on the Street Precision in Practice
December 2020

The New Kid on the Street

Tesla’s addition to the S&P 500® Index is official. What happens now?

Precision in Practice | Article
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One for the Record Books Precision in Practice
December 2020

One for the Record Books

We look at the impact of the pandemic through the lens of the US credit markets.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Aftershock Market Observations
November 2020

Aftershock

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the aftermath of the 2020 election and what could await President-elect Biden’s administration.

Market Observations | Article
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Vote No on Volatility Precision in Practice
October 2020

Vote No on Volatility

With a looming US presidential election, our index professionals review the possibility of an uptick in election-related market volatility.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
October 2020

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Stress Testing the Election Market Observations
October 2020

Stress Testing the Election

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines pre-election economic activity and its utility for assessing the 2020 election.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Some Good News is Bad News Market Observations
September 2020

Some Good News is Bad News

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses fiscal policy, incoming data, and the Mellon forecast.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Jay Powell the All Powerful Fed Thoughts
September 2020

Jay Powell the All Powerful

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s follow-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Fed Thoughts | Article
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Bringing Tablets from the Mountaintop Fed Thoughts
September 2020

Bringing Tablets from the Mountaintop

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s strategy as asymmetric, ambiguous, and fit to the moment.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Election Matters Market Observations
September 2020

Election Matters

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the potential implications of the 2020 election.

Market Observations | White Paper
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A Balancing Act Precision in Practice
September 2020

A Balancing Act

How did the whipsawing market volatility impact index managers? We explore the challenges and critical considerations.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Notes on the Fed Fed Thoughts
September 2020

Notes on the Fed

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reviews changes to the Fed’s longer-term strategy.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The New Kid in Town Precision in Practice
September 2020

The New Kid in Town

Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500® Index could be imminent. Our experts review the implications for index managers.

Precision in Practice | Article
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
August 2020

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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What Color is the Fed’s Parachute? Fed Thoughts
June 2020

What Color is the Fed’s Parachute?

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s messaging and its appetite for more unconventional stimulus.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
May 2020

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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The Near-Term Fiscal Outlook Market Observations
April 2020

The Near-Term Fiscal Outlook

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the key provisions of the 2020 CARES Act.

Market Observations | Article
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What Just Happened? Fed Cuts Rates Fed Thoughts
March 2020

What Just Happened? Fed Cuts Rates

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart unpacks the consequences of the Fed’s about-face.

Fed Thoughts | Article
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Years of Living Dangerously Market Observations
February 2020

Years of Living Dangerously

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart offers his 2020 macro outlook and current investment map.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Silence in the Mountains Fed Thoughts
January 2020

Silence in the Mountains

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the Fed’s outlook for 2020.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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A Conservative Party Win in the General Election Market Observations
December 2019

A Conservative Party Win in the General Election

The Conservative Party’s general election win may spell certainty for Brexit but it also raises questions.

Market Observations | Article
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He Who Must Not Be Named Fed Thoughts
December 2019

He Who Must Not Be Named

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the source of the Fed’s communication confusion.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Right Stuff? Market Observations
October 2019

The Right Stuff?

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the downstream effects of US-China trade policy on the macro outlook.

Market Observations | White Paper
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An Apt Place and an Awkward Time Fed Thoughts
September 2019

An Apt Place and an Awkward Time

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the Fed’s likely path for the rest of 2019.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Now Playing at a Theater of the Absurd Near You Fed Thoughts
July 2019

Now Playing at a Theater of the Absurd Near You

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart expounds on the leadership shake-ups at the EU, ECB and IMF.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Sound of Silence Fed Thoughts
July 2019

The Sound of Silence

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart evaluates whether the Fed’s empty spaces contain multitudes.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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A Churchillian Moment Market Observations
July 2019

A Churchillian Moment

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart provides an outlook for trade, the US economy and the Fed.

Market Observations | White Paper
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A Riot is an Ugly Thing Fed Thoughts
June 2019

A Riot is an Ugly Thing

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the disconnect between futures market expectations and the Fed’s likely path.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Intrigue and Trade Market Observations
June 2019

Intrigue and Trade

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the state of US-China trade policy.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Powell the Padawan Market Observations
May 2019

Powell the Padawan

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the U.S. economy and the Fed’s change of heart.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Follow the Money Fed Thoughts
March 2019

Follow the Money

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s current emphasis on its balance sheet.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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An “Unfaithfully Yours” Brexit Market Observations
March 2019

An “Unfaithfully Yours” Brexit

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential Brexit outcomes and the motivation of EU and UK officials.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain Fed Thoughts
February 2019

Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart suggests Fed communications may be an unreliable predictor of policy.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Poles Apart Fed Thoughts
January 2019

Poles Apart

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential effects of the government shutdown on the Fed’s outlook.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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A Really Big Show Market Observations
January 2019

A Really Big Show

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart details the Fed’s goal of keeping “all the plates spinning.”

Market Observations | White Paper
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